WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 153
Issue Time: 2006 Dec 14 1404 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2006 Dec 14 1405 UTC
Valid To: 2006 Dec 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate



NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

________________________


The solar active region that came around the limb last week is now facing
Earth. There was a large solar flare with attendant coronal mass ejection
from this region at 0224 GMT on the 13th. This interplanetary disturbance
should reach the Earth on the morning of the 14th GMT. It could take up to
12 hours to transfer its power to the geomagnetic field. The conclusion is
watch the sky tonight and tomorrow night in North America perhaps as far
south as the middle US and tomorrow night in Europe as far south as northern
Europe. The aurora should be visible also from Tasmania and South New
Zealand.

You can watch our simulation of the shock travel from the sun to the planets
if you go to http://www.gedds.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/
and click on the black map on the left side of the page to watch the Java
movie of the interplanetary shock.

Click on the short-term (1 hr) forecast map on the right hand side of the
page to see what will happen in the next hour. That way you won't have to
stand around outside like those in the maritimes right now in a 36 deg.
drizzle and watch the cloudy sky.

If it is clear where you are, watch for the Geminid meteors too.

Dr. Charles Deehr, Prof. Emer. Phys. Ph. 907 474 7473 Fax 907 474 7290
email cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu
The Geophysical Institute
University of Alaska Fairbanks
903 Koyukuk Ave N
Fairbanks, Alaska 99775-7320