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- 08-03-2010
  Re: Solar activity may cause problems this week
| Harald Hanche-O... | 08-05-2010 |
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> > It's only another 10 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma headed
> > our way, and thank the lord of random happenstance, most of that CME
> > should miss us because Earth is so small compared to that CME volume
> > which is so big, so perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by
> > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). =A0What could
> > possibly go wrong?
> > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > =A0~ BG
> > our way, and thank the lord of random happenstance, most of that CME
> > should miss us because Earth is so small compared to that CME volume
> > which is so big, so perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by
> > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). =A0What could
> > possibly go wrong?
> > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > =A0~ BG
> Hi
> =A0I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> Dwight
> =A0I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> Dwight
That sounds about right, especially if you didn't have line-of-sight
to whatever transmitting towers.
Thankfully this was a relatively mild one.
How far north are you?
~ BG
> > > > Solar activity may cause problems this week
> > > > http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
> > > It's only another 10 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma heade=
d
> > > > http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
> > > It's only another 10 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma heade=
> > > our way, and thank the lord of random happenstance, most of that CME
> > > should miss us because Earth is so small compared to that CME volume
> > > which is so big, so perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by
> > > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). What could
> > > possibly go wrong?
> > > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > > ~ BG
> > > should miss us because Earth is so small compared to that CME volume
> > > which is so big, so perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by
> > > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). What could
> > > possibly go wrong?
> > > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > > ~ BG
> > Hi
> > I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> > out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> > Dwight
> > I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> > out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> > Dwight
> That sounds about right, especially if you didn't have line-of-sight
> to whatever transmitting towers.
> Thankfully this was a relatively mild one.
> How far north are you?
> ~ BG
> to whatever transmitting towers.
> Thankfully this was a relatively mild one.
> How far north are you?
> ~ BG
Hi
The radio it self is dead, not a problem with reception. More like
an EMP problem than the other.
Of course it could just be coincidence. I'm in the
SF bay area.
Dwight
> > > > > Solar activity may cause problems this week
> > > > > =A0 =A0http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
> > > > It's only another 10 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma hea=
ded
> > > > > =A0 =A0http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
> > > > It's only another 10 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma hea=
> > > > our way, and thank the lord of random happenstance, most of that CM=
E
> > > > should miss us because Earth is so small compared to that CME volum=
e
> > > > which is so big, so perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by
> > > > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). =A0What coul=
d
> > > > 0.1<0.5 billion tonnes (roughly 1% of the total mass). =A0What coul=
> > > > possibly go wrong?
> > > > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > > > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > > > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > > > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > > > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > > > =A0~ BG
> > > Hi
> > > =A0I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> > > out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> > > Dwight
> > > > However, besides a few EMF caused disruptions to our global
> > > > communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure, we
> > > > should expect increased lightning and subsequent fires, and perhaps
> > > > even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the ground (with him in it),
> > > > nothing of any real importance will happen.
> > > > =A0~ BG
> > > Hi
> > > =A0I wonder if this could have had anything to do with my FM going
> > > out on my radio last evening. All I get now is static :-(
> > > Dwight
> > That sounds about right, especially if you didn't have line-of-sight
> > to whatever transmitting towers.
> > Thankfully this was a relatively mild one.
> > How far north are you?
> > =A0~ BG
> > to whatever transmitting towers.
> > Thankfully this was a relatively mild one.
> > How far north are you?
> > =A0~ BG
> Hi
> =A0The radio it self is dead, not a problem with reception. More like
> an EMP problem than the other.
> =A0Of course it could just be coincidence. I'm in the
> SF bay area.
> Dwight
> =A0The radio it self is dead, not a problem with reception. More like
> an EMP problem than the other.
> =A0Of course it could just be coincidence. I'm in the
> SF bay area.
> Dwight
Could have been a DoD EMP. Take a good look around, use a portable
EMP and microwave detector, because you may live in a hot-spot of RF.
The Navy, Army and USAF can each terminate your FM radio without even
getting close. Don't even ask what the Boeing Phantom Works ABL can
do.
~ BG
> Solar activity may cause problems this week
> =A0 =A0http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
> =A0 =A0http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322
It's only another 1.0 to 50 billion tonnes worth of solar plasma that
headed our way, and thank the lord of random happenstance and
geometry, most of that CME should miss us because Earth is so
relatively small compared to that CME volume which is so big, so
perhaps at most we=92ll get directly nailed by .01<0.5 billion tonnes
(roughly 1% of the total mass) at 600<1600 km/sec (this one arriving
at 600+ km/sec). What could possibly go wrong?
However, besides a few solar EMF caused disruptions to our global
communications, navigation and various sensitive infrastructure that
isn't EMP tolerant, we should expect increased lightning and
subsequent fires, and perhaps even if rabbi Saul's home burns to the
ground (with him in it), nothing of any real importance should happen.
The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) contour is of course expanded and
pushed closer towards us. This SAA is essentially a NO FLY zone for
the ISS anyway, and even commercial aircraft are routed in order avoid
the worse of this area whenever possible (AF447 didn=92t). =93The South
Atlantic Anomaly is a region of intense radiation caused by a dip in
the Earth's magnetic field over the lower coast of Brazil.=94
Mike Coon pointed out that we may need to consider the exposed area
that our magnetosphere represents, which is a considerably larger
volumetric area than the sphere of our atmosphere as having a radii of
100 km, whereas the magnetosphere might represent a radii of 64,000 km
that could easily intercept 10% of a direct CME encounter.
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/
At 3e9<3e12/m3 particle density within our magnetosphere, it=92s not
hard to imagine what a solar plasma wind termination shockwave packing
<3e3 protons/cm3 arriving at 600+ km/sec has to offer, as it could
easily over-saturate and thus penetrate instead of being deflected.
~ BG
> Solar activity may cause problems this week
> http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=9322
> http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=9322
Yeah, we saw an aurora in southern Norway, at just below 59° N.
That is very unusual, especially for this time of year.
--
* Harald Hanche-Olsen <URL:http://www.math.ntnu.no/~hanche/>
- It is undesirable to believe a proposition
when there is no ground whatsoever for supposing it is true.
-- Bertrand Russell
> > > =A0 =A0http://isc.sans.org/diary.html?n&storyid=3D9322